Impacts of electric heat pumps and rooftop solar panels on residential electricity distribution grids

Residential electricity distribution grid capacity is based on the typical peak load of a house and the load simultaneity factor. Historically, these values have remained predictable, but this is expected to change due to increasing electric heating using heat pumps and rooftop solar panel electricity generation. It is currently unclear how this increase in electrification will impact household peak load and load simultaneity, and hence the required grid capacity of residential electricity distribution grids. To gain better insight, transformer and household load measurements were taken in an all-electric neighborhood over a period of three years. These measurements were analyzed to determine how heat pumps and solar panels will alter peak load and load simultaneity, and hence grid capacity requirements. The impacts of outdoor effective temperature and solar panel orientation were also analyzed. Moreover, the potential for smart grids to reduce grid capacity requirements was examined.