Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles

Background As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age, it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counterintuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association, but cannot explain the association for the older, retired population. Methods Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40-44 years) and older people (70-74 years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950-2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models. Results Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality, especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average, for every 1% increase in gross domestic product, mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p