TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling Context-Sensitive, Dynamic Activity-Travel Behavior, By Linking Short and Long-Term Responses to Accumulated Stress
T2 - Results of Numerical Simulations
AU - Psarra, Ifigenia
AU - Liao, Feixiong
AU - Arentze, Theo
AU - Timmermans, Harry
PY - 2014/1/1
Y1 - 2014/1/1
N2 - Whereas existing activity-based models of travel demand simulate activity-travel patterns for a typical day, dynamic models simulate behavioral response to endogenous or exogenous change along various time horizons. Prior research predominantly addressed a specific kind of change, usually affecting a specific time-horizon. In contrast, the current study aims at developing a dynamic model of activity-travel decisions, which links short and long-term adaptation decisions in a hierarchical manner. Specifically, it focuses on the bottom-up process of influence, where problems with rescheduling on a daily basis may induce a long-term change. It is assumed that travelers will first explore short-term adjustments of their habitual activity-travel patterns, in order to cope with change and increasing stress. Only when such adaptation strategies turn out to be ineffective, they will consider long-term decisions. The proposed framework integrates three key concepts: aspiration, activation and expected utility. Moreover, both rational and emotional mechanisms are taken into account. We demonstrate model properties using numerical simulation. Individual travelers are represented as agents, each with their cognition of the environment, habits, preferences and aspirations. The results offer insight into the dynamics of traveler learning/adaptation and into the evolution of long-term decisions.
AB - Whereas existing activity-based models of travel demand simulate activity-travel patterns for a typical day, dynamic models simulate behavioral response to endogenous or exogenous change along various time horizons. Prior research predominantly addressed a specific kind of change, usually affecting a specific time-horizon. In contrast, the current study aims at developing a dynamic model of activity-travel decisions, which links short and long-term adaptation decisions in a hierarchical manner. Specifically, it focuses on the bottom-up process of influence, where problems with rescheduling on a daily basis may induce a long-term change. It is assumed that travelers will first explore short-term adjustments of their habitual activity-travel patterns, in order to cope with change and increasing stress. Only when such adaptation strategies turn out to be ineffective, they will consider long-term decisions. The proposed framework integrates three key concepts: aspiration, activation and expected utility. Moreover, both rational and emotional mechanisms are taken into account. We demonstrate model properties using numerical simulation. Individual travelers are represented as agents, each with their cognition of the environment, habits, preferences and aspirations. The results offer insight into the dynamics of traveler learning/adaptation and into the evolution of long-term decisions.
KW - mobility transition
KW - stress
KW - activity travel behavior
KW - habitual behavior
KW - numerical simulation
KW - mobiliteitstransitie
KW - spanning
KW - activief-reisgedrag
KW - gewoontegedrag
KW - numerieke simulatie
U2 - 10.3141/2412-04
DO - 10.3141/2412-04
M3 - Article
SN - 0361-1981
VL - 2412
SP - 28
EP - 40
JO - Transportation Research Record
JF - Transportation Research Record
IS - 1
ER -